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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.